Glass futures contracts for distant months have risen sharply.


Published Time:

2021-09-07

On August 23, distant-month glass futures contracts saw a significant rebound, with the main contract surging 4.37% to 2772 yuan/ton, while the 2109 contract saw a slight increase.

It is understood that in late July, many areas were affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, resulting in transportation restrictions, decreased downstream operating rates, accelerated accumulation of factory inventories, weakened market confidence, and pressure on glass futures prices.

Zhang Xi, an analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute, said that the current spot price of glass remains firm. Although the market remains cautious about purchasing high-priced glass spot goods, with downstream demand as the main driver, it is expected that concentrated replenishment will occur downstream as the epidemic is gradually brought under control and peak season demand is realized.

On the supply side, glass sheet manufacturers are seeing significant profits, and manufacturers are actively resuming production and replacing production lines, so glass production is still expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, high construction, high completion, and low start rates in the real estate sector in July indicate that medium- and long-term demand still exists.

Regarding inventory, Zhang Xi said that although inventories continue to rise, they remain at relatively low levels over the years. The rate of inventory accumulation has slowed compared to the previous week, mainly because the epidemic has been gradually brought under control in some areas, and peak season demand is expected to provide support, keeping spot prices firm. As downstream and traders digest their own inventories, market wait-and-see sentiment is weakening. In terms of profit, the average profit of the float glass industry is 1403.79 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 14.76 yuan/ton from the previous month, but the profit is still at a high level.

In general, if the country strictly controls the implementation of new glass production capacity plans, the supply side will not see a significant increase. The second half of the year will be a peak period for real estate completion, which will lead to increased demand for glass. It is expected that the industry's supply and demand may continue to maintain a tight balance, and the glass market may remain at a high level. However, attention should also be paid to the upward risk that may be brought about by the country's strict control of new glass production capacity, and the downward risk that may be brought about by the failure of the real estate terminal demand to meet expectations.